German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (right) looks on as Polish President Andrzej Duda speaks during a joint press conference with French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday in Berlin. AFP
Faced with the worst stand-off between Russia and the West since the Cold War, former Communist bloc countries are taking a more hardline approach and warning against making compromises with Moscow.
French rhetoric about “legitimate” Russian concerns and Germany’s close energy ties with Russia have made countries like Poland and the Baltic states wary of the ongoing great power diplomacy.
“Poland has the most decisive, assertive stance towards what Russia is doing,” Pawel Soloch, head of Poland’s national security bureau, told state television this week.
He spoke after the French, German and Polish leaders met in Berlin on February 8 to discuss the stand-off with Russia, whose troop build-up close to the Ukraine border has raised fears of a full-scale invasion.
Polish President Andrzej Duda has been steadfast in his calls for unity, arguing that the West must close ranks and saying that we “cannot allow ourselves to be played in this situation”.
“We must show that it is impossible to break us . . . that it is not the case that we will yield and leave someone behind just because of the fear that we might not manage to secure peace,” he said in Berlin.
“I am convinced we will succeed. We need a smart but firm and determined stance.”
Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas on February 9 echoed that hardline approach to Russia, arguing that “genuine dialogue cannot be held at gunpoint.”
“We will not compromise on core principles, including the right of each nation to choose its own path,” she said after talks with her Belgian counterpart Alexander De Croo.
“We must stand firm and united. Any failure in this would send an encouraging signal to Russia and could lead to similar strong-arm tactics elsewhere.”
Russia is calling for a permanent ban on Ukraine, a former Soviet republic, joining NATO and wants the US-led military alliance to roll back its deployment in ex-communist countries.
Warsaw-based political expert Marcin Zaborowski said it is “no secret” that Poland has had a different approach to the Ukrainian crisis from that of Germany and France.
“Poland has been more supportive of the Ukrainian claim for territorial integrity and less open to a compromise with Russia on this point,” he said.
“Poland is Ukraine’s most steadfast supporter in Europe. We have the largest border with Ukraine, we have the largest diaspora,” said the policy director at the Globsec think-tank.
“If Ukraine were to fall under the Russian sphere of influence in a firm way, that would have immediate adverse consequences for Poland’s security.”
Ditto for the Baltics, which Zaborowski said might be even more hawkish given that they supplied Ukraine with weaponry even before Poland did.
As former Soviet republics, the Baltic trio fear that they too could be caught in Russia’s crosshairs down the line.
“Central Eastern European countries have all experienced Russian occupation, that kept and prevented them from EU membership,” said Wojciech Przybylski, editor-in-chief of the think-tank Visegrad Insight.
“So the sensitivity comes partly – as anything in politics – from memories and threat perception,” he said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin himself has shown an awareness of the delicate situation of these countries, even if he denies that their concern is warranted.
“The Baltic states and other countries, our neighbours, supposedly feel unsafe. Why? It’s unclear,” he said this week at his news conference with his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron.
“In any case they are using this as a pretext to construct policies that are inimical towards Russia,” he added, pointing to the fact that they “are pumping Ukraine full of modern weaponry”.
