Cambodia’s position between the US and China raises significant questions about its foreign policy direction. This article seeks to highlight key points regarding Cambodia’s diplomatic strategies, particularly under Prime Minister Hun Manet, and how they have evolved from the approach of his predecessor, former Prime Minister Hun Sen.

The Kingdom’s foreign policy, especially regarding its relations with China and the US, has drawn renewed attention due to the transition of power from long-serving Prime Minister Hun Sen to his son, Manet. While certain policies remain intact, differences in approach have surfaced, reflecting the distinct agendas of the two leaders.

Changes in foreign policy towards the US and China

Under Hun Sen’s administration, Cambodia forged a deeper relationship with China, largely due to Chinese financial assistance, in the form of investments in infrastructure, real estate and other sectors. China became the Kingdom’s most important economic partner, with its model of development praised by the Cambodian leadership. The relationship extended into the realm of defence, with joint military exercises and Chinese military aid raising concerns about a potential Chinese military presence at Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base, a sensitive point for neighbouring countries like Vietnam, as well as the US.

Cambodia’s close ties with China have naturally come with expectations. A senior official from Cambodia’s Ministry of National Defence, who spoke anonymously, noted that "when one gives a gift, there is often an expectation of something in return". Cambodia’s consistent support of China’s stance on the South China Sea and Chinese Taipei, as well as various other international issues, underscores the reciprocal nature of the relationship.

However, despite Cambodia’s deep ties, public sentiment towards China is not universally positive. 

“The Cambodian perception of China remains negative, and due to increasing negative portrayals, it is not universally regarded as a superpower,” said another senior Cambodian official. 

Under Manet, Cambodia’s policy toward China remains largely unchanged, but there has been a shift in how the relationship is portrayed. Rather than emphasising symbolic terms like “Ironclad” or “Diamond” friendship, the seventh-mandate government appears to focus more on practical benefits. "Cambodia is less vocal and more focused on practical outcomes," he added, pointing to tangible cooperation such as China’s donation of two corvette naval vessels to Cambodia.

He believed that three key factors explain why Cambodia continues to develop its close ties with China.

 First, Cambodia views Vietnam as its primary security threat, and China is seen as the only superpower capable of safeguarding Cambodia’s sovereignty.

“Vietnam has been known for its invasions and attempts to dominate Cambodia," added the anonymous defence ministry official. He also expressed concerns about Vietnam's possible strategy, alleging that many Vietnamese citizens are acquiring Cambodian nationality through bribery at the border. 

“Over time, this could lead to a significant non-Khmer population claiming Cambodia as their home," he said, suggesting that Vietnam’s actions reflect an ongoing ambition for territorial expansion and increased influence. 

Second, China remains Cambodia’s largest trading partner, investor, and aid donor, with bilateral trade in 2023 reaching $13 billion and total Chinese investment at $45 billion. Since 1992, Chinese foreign assistance to Cambodia stands at around $17.7 billion.

 Finally, the long-standing historical ties between the two countries provide a foundation for continued cooperation. As Dr. Raoul M. Jennar, a political analyst has been closely involved with Cambodian politics for more than 30 years, pointed out, "China respects Cambodia's independence and sovereignty" and has done so since 1954, when China supported Cambodia’s unity during the Geneva Conference. 

He added that when the Vietnamese communists proposed dividing Cambodia into separate non-communist and communist zones, similar to Vietnam, China rejected the idea. China insisted on a neutral, independent and sovereign Cambodia. At that time, Chinese foreign minister Zhou Enlai, played a key role in preserving Cambodia’s unity, which helped forge a close friendship with the late King Father Norodom Sihanouk. This historical bond continues to influence relations today.

Cambodia’s relationship with the US

Under Hun Sen, Cambodia’s relations with the U.S. were sometimes strained. In 2017, Cambodia canceled the “Angkor Sentinel” military exercise with the US, and US military assistance was suspended. In contrast, Hun Manet has adopted a more pragmatic approach, acknowledging the risks of over-reliance on a single superpower. While not distancing itself from China, the current administration has signalled a willingness to engage with the US and other Western countries. 

Manet, with a military background and Western education, may prioritise transparency and cooperation in defence exercises that demonstrate a willingness to engage with other countries, including the US.

His openness to working with the US was demonstrated by the visit of US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to Cambodia in June 2024. The two sides discussed strengthening the US-Cambodia bilateral defence relationship in support of regional peace and security, including military training, disaster assistance, UN Peacekeeping training exchanges and access to US military education programmes, signalling a potential shift towards closer military ties.

Cambodia is also working to diversify its economic relationships, seeking trade and investment from Japan, South Korea and France, to reduce its economic dependency on China. Manet’s government is adopting a softer diplomatic tone, broadening engagement with key international partners. This strategy reflects a desire to reduce Cambodia’s over-reliance on China and improve its global standing. 

The diplomatic shift: From Hun Sen to Hun Manet

There has been a noticeable difference in diplomatic approach between the two leaders. Hun Sen’s foreign policy was rigid, often defending the Kingdom’s relationship with China in the face of Western criticism. This allowed Cambodia to resist external pressures that could have compromised its autonomy and ensured that decisions remained under the control of the Cambodian government, with Hun Sen taking a strong stance towards preserving the country’s independence, maintaining stability and sovereignty.

However, Manet’s government has adopted a more flexible and inclusive approach, seeking to balance its ties with both China and the West. There are signs that his administration is looking to expand engagement with key international partners, aiming to address issues through dialogue and cooperation instead of confrontation. 

This approach suggests that Cambodia is seeking to enhance its global standing with a more flexible and nuanced diplomacy. By doing so, the Kingdom presumably hopes to decrease its dependence on one superpower while diversifying its economic and diplomatic relationships – crucial steps for ensuring long-term stability and growth. This shift may also help address some of the criticisms regarding human rights and democratic governance that Cambodia experienced during Hun Sen’s tenure. By engaging with the West and addressing these issues, Cambodia could potentially restore trade privileges and aid, bringing economic benefits to key sectors reliant on Western markets.

However, there are some who have doubts about Cambodia’s ability to balance its ties with both the US and China. 

“If Cambodia seeks to strengthen its ties with the US, it will be unlikely to happen as long as the current leadership remains in power," remarked the senior defence official. His sentiment reflects the complexity of Cambodia’s foreign policy landscape.

Consensus among Cambodian elites on foreign policy

There is broad consensus among Cambodia’s leadership that maintaining strong Chinese ties is essential for the country’s economic growth and political stability. This agreement reflects China's substantial economic presence in Cambodia, through large investment in infrastructure and development aid. As previously mentioned, Cambodia has gained economic growth and political stability from its ties with China. 

This partnership is also seen as a counterbalance to Western influence and criticism. Strategically, the close relationship provides Cambodia with security and political support, helping sustain its social and economic development.

Conversely, opinions on Cambodia's relations with the US are varied. Most members of Manet's administration recognise the benefits of strengthening ties with the US, emphasising the importance of diversifying Cambodia's foreign relations. This approach aims to reduce over-reliance on a single superpower, thereby enhancing the country's global standing and supporting its development.

Nevertheless, scepticism toward the US persists, rooted in historical factors and the belief that the US uses “democracy and human rights” as tools for interference in Cambodia's internal affairs. This sentiment has fostered support for a cautious approach to US relations, emphasising the importance of sovereignty and non-interference. In contrast, Cambodia aims to maintain a strong alliance with China, which is viewed as less likely to intervene in the country's internal matters.

The centralised nature of decision-making in Cambodia, particularly within the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP), ensures alignment on key foreign policy decisions. Leaders and officials typically support the prime minister’s stance, ensuring a consistent foreign policy. This unity is essential for maintaining a coherent and consistent foreign policy, particularly for a small state like Cambodia navigating complex international relationships.

The prime minister – whether Hun Sen in the past or Manet at present – plays a pivotal role in shaping the tone and direction of Cambodia's foreign policy. Consequently, the government's approach to foreign policy is closely aligned with the prime minister's vision, which ministries and officials are expected to support and implement.

However, beneath the surface of apparent unity, there may be ongoing debates within the leadership regarding the country’s strategic direction. These discussions often revolve around managing relations with China, weighing the advantages of securing Chinese support against the potential diplomatic and economic benefits of engaging with the US and other Western nations. Such internal deliberations are crucial for refining policy and ensuring the country’s resilience in the face of external pressures, especially as the government seeks to diversify its relationships with major global powers and maximise its interests for sustainable growth.

Future prospects: Hedging as Cambodia’s strategic position 

Cambodia’s foreign policy appears to be leaning towards a hedging strategy, seeking to navigate the geopolitical complexities of Asia without fully committing to any single superpower. Thong Mengdavid, an international relations lecturer at the Royal University of Phnom Penh, noted that Cambodia’s foreign policy is rooted in neutrality, adherence to international law, economic diplomacy and respect for the UN system. 

By enhancing its global image, Cambodia aims to reduce reliance on China and build partnerships with other countries.

“The Cambodian government has introduced further elements, including economic diplomacy, cultural diplomacy and peace diplomacy. These efforts aim to enhance Cambodia's international image and prestige, ensure the perceptions of Cambodia as a small yet dignified and peaceful country, and highlight its potential as a favourable destination for investment and cooperation,” said Mengdavid.

 He explained that although Cambodia is currently classified as a Least Developed Country (LDC), these initiatives aim to strengthen international partnerships and attract investment to enhance the export of Cambodian goods.

Looking ahead, a former Cambodian senior official believed that a more balanced approach could lead to economic improvements and better infrastructure. 

“With reduced influence from the previous administration, Cambodia can adopt a more hedging strategy in the future," he added. 

In conclusion, while Cambodia under Hun Manet is attempting to navigate the delicate balance between the US and China, diversifying its economic and diplomatic ties, the future remains uncertain, and only time will tell how successful this strategy will be in managing the ongoing great power rivalry.

Chandara Samban is a freelance journalist based in Cambodia with an interest in regional affairs, diplomacy and security issues. The views expressed are his own.