Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has been isolated globally. Many countries, including China, have been trying to distance themselves from Russia, at least to show that they do not support Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine. The situation is challenging for Moscow, which is now trying to find new friends. North Korea appears to be Putin’s most available option. Given that Pyongyang has long been sanctioned internationally, it is easily approached by Moscow. While close relations with Russia enable North Korea to deliver its old weapons and munitions to Russian units in Ukraine, North Korea can in turn gain access to Russian food, fuel and technology.

It has long been reported that Russia imports ammunition and arms from North Korea to sustain its war in Ukraine. As of February 2024, it was reported that North Korea had sent around 6,700 containers of munitions and weapons to Russia. While this is one of the reasons for Russia to engage with North Korea, Russia also has strategic reasons for engaging with the hermit kingdom.

The most significant of these is that Russia is attempting to build a coalition in Asia to counterbalance the influence of the US and other Western countries. Russia has found itself in isolation and knows that its war in Ukraine will not end anytime soon, as Ukraine is supported by the US and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). 

While other countries, such as China, India, and Vietnam, still maintain good relations with Russia, mainly because of their historical ties, those countries have made it clear that they do not support Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. In fact, China as well as India have benefited greatly from Russia’s cheap oil and gas exports. 

Against this backdrop, Moscow is trying to cause disturbances in East Asia and force China to join its coalition against the US by strengthening military relations with North Korea. Putin understands that Russia’s increasing military cooperation with North Korea is a major security concern for South Korea and Japan. 

The pact has emboldened North Korea to pursue more provocative action and access Russian technology and weapons. This is a major concern for South Korea. North Korea is currently becoming more provocative. In addition to sending trash balloons to South Korea, North Korea recently transferred around 250 short-range missiles to its military base close to the border on the Korean Peninsula. 

The Russia-North Korea military coalition has been a major factor in pushing South Korea and Japan to strengthen their military relations with the US and NATO. Consequently, China is becoming more uncomfortable with the current US and NATO engagement in East Asia.

Unsurprisingly, Russia as well as North Korea have framed their actions as a balance against the US in building a version of NATO in Asia. For instance, while Putin justified its invasion of Ukraine because Ukraine wanted to be part of NATO, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un accused the US, Japan and South Korea of building an Asian NATO following joint military exercises between the three countries. 

The exercises were believed to have been held in response to North Korea’s increasing military aggression and its recent signing of military ties with Russia. Whether China joins Moscow’s alliance or not, Russia can still benefit from it, through the intensifying US-China rivalry in East Asia.

Russia is also attempting to use North Korea as a credible deterrent against the US and its allies, particularly as they provide arms support to Ukraine. In addition to Pyongyang’s provocative actions, North Korea also possesses a stockpile of nuclear warheads with various means of delivery, including short and medium-range and intercontinental ballistic missiles.

After signing the comprehensive strategic partnership, which includes mutual defence assistance between Russia and North Korea, Putin announced that the agreement will make Pyongyang one of the recipient countries for Russian weapons, should Western countries continue sending arms to Ukraine. 

North Korea’s acquisition of Russian weapons and technology will be more dangerous given that the regime has adopted a hostile foreign policy toward neighbouring countries and is focusing on a nuclear program in violation of international laws and norms. Russia’s support will assist North Korea in building other advanced military technology such as hypersonic and multiple warhead missiles.

Overall, Russia is trying to destabilize East Asia by strengthening its military cooperation with North Korea, including the transfer of military technology and the possibility of transferring weapons to Pyongyang. While this appears to be in the interests of Russia, other countries in East Asia, including China, will bear the consequences of Russia’s action.

Sokvy Rim is a research fellow at the Cambodian Center for Regional Studies. His research interests focus on Cambodian foreign policy and its engagement with Southeast and East Asian countries. The views expressed are his own.